Applied Macroeconomic Forecasting
"Forecasting the Future: A Modern Economics Challenge"
A comprehensive quantitative framework forecasting 25 binary global economic scenarios across
1–10 year horizons. Using advanced econometric modeling (ARIMA, VAR, logistic regression),
Bayesian networks, and Monte Carlo simulation, this project delivers unprecedented analytical
depth and reproducibility.
The Waterbridge Challenge 2025 asked teams to forecast the economic, technological, and geopolitical consequences of emerging Modern Mercantilism—a shift toward protectionist trade policies, supply chain restructuring, and technological bifurcation.
This project submits a complete quantitative implementation with 100% model coverage—every forecast backed by rigorous econometric analysis.
Unlike purely qualitative forecasts, every one of the 25 scenarios has a dedicated quantitative model:
ARIMA, linear regression, time series analysis of global tariffs, supply chain data.
Logistic regression, VAR models, network analysis, panel econometrics.
GARCH volatility, cointegration testing, game theory, macroeconomic leading indicators.
63.3%
Weighted by model confidence across all 25 scenarios.
0.39 (LOW)
Low risk classification; predictions robust to model variation.
R² > 0.65
Across primary econometric models; cross-validated.
| Forecast | Probability | Horizon | Model Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| F1: Tariff Escalation – MFN tariffs rise ≥2pp above 2022 baseline | 70% |
2026 | ARIMA |
| F2: Supply Chain Pivot – China import share <12%, Vietnam doubles | 75% |
2027 | Linear Regression |
| F5: Tech Standards Bifurcation – Distinct US/China standards in 5+ tech verticals | 85% |
2027 | Binary Classification |
| F7: USD Reserve Position – USD maintains >55.5% of global FX reserves | 66% |
2030 | VAR Model |
| F6: Carbon Tariff Adoption – ≥7 G-20 economies implement carbon tariffs | 64% |
2029 | Logistic Regression |
Read the results summary, methodology walkthrough, and full technical documentation.
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